Was the April 6, 2009 quake in Italy predicted?

Posted by Alan Kafka on April 6, 2009

Many people are asking if the recent magnitude 6.3 quake in Italy was predicted –

Row Over Italian Quake ‘Forecast’ –

Well, that depends on what you mean by “predicted.” The quake occurred in an area that is well-known to have a significant LONG-TERM hazard –


And, in that sense, this quake was certainly “predicted” as something that would inevitably happen at some point in time.

But in terms of SHORT-TERM quake prediction: Some seismologists (and some non-seismologists) claim that they can predict quakes, but I (and nearly all other seismologists) are very skeptical about such claims.

For more of my thoughts on earthquake prediction, see –

“Earthquake Prediction: You Want Answers, We’ve Got Questions”

One thought on “Was the April 6, 2009 quake in Italy predicted?

  1. Like you inevitable yes, but I don’t think anyone can predict an earthquake exactly….maybe they get lucky, but not by using science to actually predict. Forecast an approximation I will agree with though.

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