Posted by Alan Kafka, on June 12, 2009

On June 2, 2009 Cleburne, Texas experienced its first recorded earthquake in its history. This earthquake, and four more that have since occurred, have raised the question of whether drilling for natural gas is causing the quakes.

http://tinyurl.com/l7ezqs

This is another one of those situations where scientists don’t know what the answer is, and where people are looking for a simple, yes or no, answer in a case where science can not provide that level of certainty.

The above linked article cites two opposite opinions on this question, both from scientists, and it might be possible that both conclusions are consistent with the data:

“Cliff Frohlich, a scientist at the University of Texas and author of ‘Texas Earthquakes,’ said he believes more than 20 Texas earthquakes in the past 100 years are related to drilling for petroleum and gas.”

but:

“John Breyer, a petroleum geologist and professor at Texas Christian University, said drilling is absolutely not causing the earthquakes.”

Posted by Alan Kafka on April 6, 2009

Many people are asking if the recent magnitude 6.3 quake in Italy was predicted -

Row Over Italian Quake ‘Forecast’ -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/europe/7986585.stm

Well, that depends on what you mean by “predicted.” The quake occurred in an area that is well-known to have a significant LONG-TERM hazard -

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/2009/eq_090406_fcaf/neic_fcaf_w.html

And, in that sense, this quake was certainly “predicted” as something that would inevitably happen at some point in time.

But in terms of SHORT-TERM quake prediction: Some seismologists (and some non-seismologists) claim that they can predict quakes, but I (and nearly all other seismologists) are very skeptical about such claims.

For more of my thoughts on earthquake prediction, see -

“Earthquake Prediction: You Want Answers, We’ve Got Questions”